After 16 months of fighting in Ukraine, the Russian military still has nearly all of its warplanes. That is what NATO and European countries fear. Although the jets and helicopters did not disappear over Ukraine, the dense air defense system made the airspace inhospitable.
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However, NATO military commanders say Russia has a much larger air force, other problems may keep it from operating effectively.
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In a speech to the Global Air & Space Chiefs' Conference in London on Thursday, Air Marshal Rich Knighton, Chief of the British Air Force, said the Russian Army was now "weaker", having lost more than two-thirds of its tanks, "but most of the the air force remains intact."
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Knighton displays a graph illustrating both sides' losses, based on an assessment by UK Defense Intelligence and open source tracking website Oryx. One chart says Russia has experienced more than 220,000 deaths, including 176 military pilots.
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Russia also lost 162 air defense systems. The second graph shows that the Russian Air Force maintains 96% of its 2,021 aircraft and 90% of its 899 helicopters. Russia lost only 86 planes and 90 helicopters. This figure is slightly different from previous estimates.
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A US intelligence document leaked online this spring listed Russian losses at 72 fighter jets and fighter-bombers and 81 helicopters and Ukrainian losses at 60 fighters and fighter-bombers and 32 helicopters.
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The leaked document noted that officials had "low confidence" in the estimate of attrition due to an "information gap", operational security and information operations, and bias in information shared by Ukraine.
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That corroborates comments from many US and NATO officials, who say that an effective air defense network on both sides prevents Ukraine and Russia from achieving air superiority and launching effective air strikes on forward or rear area targets.
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“If the Russian Air Force were able to control the sky when it attacked in February 2022, it would probably be a war of three or 10 days,” General James Hecker, commander of the US Air Forces in Europe and a NATO Ally, told Insider. “All the military equipment that 45 countries have to offer. to Ukraine and trucking will never get there if Russia has air superiority,” Hecker said.
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"They will have close air support aircraft right over the Polish and Romanian borders, over the lines of communication, and as soon as it crosses the border it will do so." Both sides have an effective network of air defenses that counter the other side's operations, added Hecker, who said in March that Ukraine had lost more than 60 aircraft and Russia more than 70.
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"Ukraine now has a very, very advanced, powerful, tough, integrated air and missile defense system, just like Russia, so what you're seeing is the Russians can't fly their planes all the way into Ukraine, because they get shot down," Hacker said.
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"Similarly, the Ukrainians cannot fly their planes to Russia for the same reason." However, aircraft from both sides were still active. The airstrikes were part of Ukraine's preparations for a counteroffensive launched in June. While the Russian Air Force has yet to deploy the majority of its air power, its aircraft continue to strike Ukrainian positions and there are signs it is exploring new ways to employ them, though often from the safety of Russian-held territory.
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"We've seen them experiment with different types of rockets that they can launch a little further on their side," said Dara Massicot, a Russian military expert at the Rand Corporation research institute. Massicot said the Russian Air Force could still exploit its numerical advantage if Ukraine was airborne, although other factors could hinder Russian air operations going forward.
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The loss is likely to have a major impact on its relatively small cadre of skilled pilots, and Western sanctions could limit its ability to service the jet. Hecker and his deputy, British Air Marshal Johnny Stringer, also said that despite some recent improvements, problems with training, targeting and decision making would likely hamper the performance of the Russian air force.
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“Russia has recapitalized quite a bit of their tactical air force, and they've done a lot on the weapons front as well. But if you don't cover all lines of development," Stringer said on the War on the Rocks podcast. "Be prepared to have some flashy things that aren't as capable as you might expect when writing a check," he says.