Recent satellite images provided by US space technology company Maxar show
broad-scale Russian military activity persists near the Ukrainian border.
The military activity is visible despite Russia's recent claims of
de-escalation and troop withdrawal.
Taken in mid-February, satellite imagery depicts Ukraine remaining under
siege on three sides on its borders with Russia and Belarus.
Recent images show military hardware and concentration of Russian troops.
Of particular interest is the presence of a new field hospital, some
distance back in the Osipovichi training area in northwestern Belarus.
While this could be a legitimate part of any large-scale field exercise, it
could also be an indication of the estimated combat casualties of the
imminent conflict.
Concentrations and other troop activity is much closer to the Ukrainian
border. A military pontoon bridge over the Pripyat river is photographed on
Feb. 15. It is less than 6 km from the Belarusian border with Ukraine.
Analysts at London-based McKenzie Intelligence Services have highlighted a
large area on the right bank of the river as an indicator of a possible
intention to move a large number of vehicles. Some reports suggest the
pontoon may have been moved.
Another image is of self-propelled artillery, or large-caliber guns mounted
on tank chassis, assembled at Brestsky, which is about 50 km from the
border. A unit of 20 newly arrived anti-tank attack helicopters was spotted
at Zyabrovka airfield, 30 km from the border.
Intelligence analyst McKenzie said there were 12 possible Russian Hokum, and
five possible Hind or Mi-28 Havoc helicopters.
It is important to remember that the current Russian military presence is
around 30,000 troops in Belarus. What worries Ukraine and NATO is the
scheduled joint exercise which ends on February 20.
So the main test of Moscow's intentions will come after that date when
satellite imagery reveals whether most of the Russian troops there remained
or left.
What do these pictures not tell us? Nothing in these images definitively
proves Russia will invade Ukraine.
Russia continues to insist that the invasion was not its intention and such
accusations are part of western propaganda. But NATO's defense chief
believes Russia now has enough troops around Ukraine to carry out an
invasion if President Putin gives the order.
The scale, size and configuration of Russia's deployment near the Ukrainian
border is unprecedented, for example, by air defense units brought in from
thousands of miles east of Siberia.
Under the leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian
military has undergone a dramatic transformation from the dark days of the
1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Two things have happened
that have made the Russian military a force anyone should reckon with.
First, large sums of state money have been invested in modernizing and
upgrading troops, equipment, weapons, cyberspace and logistics from the
latest version of cyberattacks to the reorganization of combat units into a
compact “Tactical Battalion Group” with around 800 troops supported by
tanks, artillery and other weapons.
Second, Russian commanders and planners have spent the last seven years
gaining valuable combat experience in Syria and eastern Ukraine.
Their weapons have been tested on the battlefield and Russian commanders
have learned from previous mistakes.
Taken together, western analysts believe Moscow could, if it wished,
maintain a sizeable and threatening military presence around Ukraine's
borders for weeks, if not months, to come.
