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| Trump’s Threats Supercharged Canada’s Carney — and Sidelined Conservatives as Canadians Head to the Polls |
In a stunning twist, Canada's Liberals, once left for dead in the polls, now seem poised to clinch a fourth consecutive term — thanks, in part, to an unexpected source: Donald Trump.
Just months ago, the Conservatives were cruising toward a possible landslide. An Angus Reid Institute poll released December 30 showed them commanding 45% support compared to a dismal 11% for the Liberals. Fast forward to this weekend, and the landscape looks completely different: Liberals at 44%, holding a narrow but crucial four-point edge over the Conservatives.
"It looks like there will be a Liberal government," Angus Reid, chair of the Angus Reid Institute, told Fox News Digital. "It would be a very big surprise if the Conservatives pulled this off."
So, what changed? Two things: Trump and Trudeau.
When Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January — coinciding with Trump’s inauguration as America’s 47th president — many thought the Liberals were finished. But Trudeau’s successor, former central banker Mark Carney, wasted no time seizing on Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, transforming the election into a referendum on Canadian sovereignty.
Trump’s Monday morning post on Truth Social didn't exactly soothe nerves. "Good luck to the Great people of Canada," Trump wrote. "Elect the man who will QUADRUPLE your industries...if Canada becomes the cherished 51st State of the United States of America."
The remarks — and threats of tariffs and annexation — quickly vaulted Trump into the heart of the Canadian election.
"Trump became the single most important issue in the country overnight," Reid said. "Carney jumped in early to say: 'We won’t put up with this. We’re a sovereign nation, and we’ll fight.'"
A Battle of Contrasts
The campaign has unfolded as a clash of opposites: Carney, the technocratic outsider, versus Poilievre, the seasoned political brawler.
Carney, 60, boasts an impressive resume — former head of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and a UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. Yet critics have painted him as an out-of-touch globalist, more at home in London or Davos than in downtown Toronto.
Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, 45, pitches himself as a champion of change. But after two decades in Parliament, opponents argue he's hardly the outsider he claims to be.
The irony, as Reid points out, is sharp: Trump — a model for Poilievre’s "anti-woke," small-government brand — inadvertently sabotaged a candidate who shares many of his ideological instincts.
"He imperiled the campaign of someone who, in many ways, could be seen as his stepbrother in Canada," Reid said.
Trump’s Vanishing Act
The Liberals' lead widened earlier this month when Trump was a daily headline in Canada. But recently, as Trump shifted focus to China and U.S. domestic issues, Liberal momentum stalled. An Ipsos poll released April 21 showed a tighter race: Liberals at 41%, Conservatives at 38%.
"When Trump says ‘51st state’ stuff, it reignites the Liberals’ advantage," Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker explained. "But when Trump goes quiet, Canadians start refocusing on affordability — and the Liberals' decade-long record."
The Deciders: Ontario’s 905
Ultimately, the election may come down to one critical battleground: Ontario’s 905 region, the suburban belt surrounding Toronto.
"The 905 voted overwhelmingly for Trudeau’s Liberals three times," Bricker said. "If they do it again, the Liberals will win a fourth term."
Mark Carney has already promised that if he wins, he’ll seek an urgent meeting with Trump to hammer out a new trade and security deal — showing he’s ready to face the giant next door head-on. Meanwhile, critics say Poilievre miscalculated, spending too much time attacking a Trudeau who was no longer on the stage, instead of pivoting to address Trump's challenge directly.
A Record Turnout — and a Tense Wait
A record 7.3 million Canadians voted early over Easter weekend, according to Elections Canada. With six time zones across the country, final results aren’t expected until late Monday evening. Regardless of the outcome, one thing is clear: Canada’s political future — and its relationship with the U.S. — is about to take a dramatic turn.