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Some argue that Putin's move shows his despair over Russia's decline in Ukraine. |
Recently, President Vladimir Putin ordered the partial mobilization of Russian reservists to help the war in Ukraine, Wednesday (21/9). This policy sparked protests in the country and led to nearly 1,200 people being arrested.
Not only that, Russian citizens seem to be trying to "escape" from the country after Putin's announcement. People in that country are busy buying plane tickets to escape from Russia.
This phenomenon is seen in the Aviasales data. Based on the data, direct flights from Russia to cities in the former Soviet Union, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, were full on Wednesday.
In addition, the airline Turkish Airlines said the planes to Istanbul were sold out until Saturday (24/9).
As reported by the Associated Press, Putin's policy was announced at a time when the Russian military suffered a setback in the war in Ukraine.
Some argue that Putin's move shows his despair over Russia's decline in Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Putin's decision to mobilize citizens and seek to hold an annexation referendum in parts of Ukraine was an "act of desperation".
"This is another sign of his despair over how his aggression is unfolding in Ukraine. He [Putin] is only interested in continuing his devastating war," European Commission foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano said.
Russian Troops Defeat Prediction
Seeing the situation in Russia that seems to be "increasingly desperate," some observers think there is a possibility that the Kremlin will lose the war in Ukraine.
"The main thing is the declining mentality of fighting the Russian army because it has experienced sluggishness as a result of the prolonged war. Meanwhile the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army continues to burn because it is to fight foreign invasions," said University of Indonesia international relations observer Yon Machmudi, when interviewed by CNNIndonesia.com, Wednesday (21/9).
In addition to the declining mentality of the Russian army, Yon assessed that another factor that could make Russia lose was because Ukraine received weapons from the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
"The latest weapons assistance from the US and Nato has made the Ukrainian resistance stronger, while Russia itself has experienced many embargoes which have resulted in the limitation of their weapons. I think this is what makes Russia predicted to experience defeat," said Yon again.
Predicted until the end of 2022
In addition, Yon assessed that the Russian troops are currently struggling with exhaustion. He also said that Putin actually wanted to end the war immediately, but kept his "face straight."
"At least it will last until the end of 2022 after that there will be big changes," said Yon when discussing the prediction of Russia's defeat.
Meanwhile, an observer on international relations at the Airlangga University, Siti Susanto, said that it could actually be that Putin is now under pressure.
"Is Putin pressed, it could be. Because in the international system, economic and political embargoes also make it difficult to move," Siti said when contacted by CNNIndonesia.com, Wednesday (21/9).
Even so, Siti considered that Russia would not necessarily lose to Ukraine. This is because Moscow could play the "energy" card for diplomacy with the European Union.
"For example, asking for relief from some of the economic embargoes that [Russia] is currently experiencing. Russia, at this point, can still be stubborn," he said.
In addition, Siti believes that Ukraine still has the power to counter the Russian attack with the help of weapons from the US and its allies. Both sides are in a weakened state, but both are trying to survive with "the gaps that are still available."
"Russia with its own strength, Ukraine with the support of many allies."
Possible 'Coup' of Putin's Government
Seeing Putin's decision to mobilize people to the battlefield, some experts believe this has the potential to spark an uprising in Russia.
"If the Russian people see the impact of the war as miserable, they may carry out a movement against Putin, which could lead to a coup," Yon said.
Meanwhile, another observer from the University of Indonesia Suzie Sudarman said that most people are currently "matter."
"This is the matre era, yes [people] don't want to be sent to war," said Suzie when contacted by CNNIndonesia.com, Wednesday (21/9).
However, Suzie assessed that people's unwillingness to go to war still does not necessarily lead to a coup against Putin.
"A coup is not in my mind [to] me because Putin's supporters are the Russian oil mafia," he said.
"Usually the rich are the meanest people and are always afraid of losing their wealth."
Meanwhile, an observer from Airlangga University, Siti, believes that most of the Russian people do not want war.
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