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| "Whether Russia will succeed in capturing Donetsk is still a big question," said Suzie. |
Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly targeting control of Donetsk by September 15. However, later, they were called a shortage of ammunition.
Is the target of the Moscow troops achievable?
Russia, according to some media, had taken control of half of the Donetsk region by June. However, so far it is not clear which areas are already in the hands of Moscow's forces.
Early last September, Deputy Head of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksiy Gromov, said Russian troops changed their plans and actions.
Donetsk is in eastern Ukraine where pro-Moscow separatists are based. International relations observer from the University of Indonesia, Suzie Sudarman, doubts that Russia can fully control Donetsk on 15 September.
"Whether Russia will succeed in capturing Donetsk is still a big question," said Suzie.
In his view, Russia looks exhausted because of miscalculations and strategies regarding Ukraine. One of the strategies he intended was to kill civilians in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This action will make Moscow called Suzie trouble.
"It is difficult to control a country [Ukraine] that has a high identity and is a former USSR [Soviet Union]," he said.
Russia, he said, regards Ukraine as a country with minimal legitimacy and national identity, making it easy to lose. However, this is a wrong view. Ukraine continues to fight back against Russian attacks, even though much of the territory has been captured.
Suzie also could not deny the flow of weapons from the West to Ukraine. Moreover, according to him, the G7 countries agreed to defeat the country led by Putin. According to a Financial Times report in August, Russia controlled the Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson and Lisichansk regions.
Meanwhile, the University of Muhammadiyah, Fahmi Salsabila, is optimistic that the Russian troops can completely control Donetsk. Fahmi referred to data that Moscow troops managed to control 50 percent of the Donetsk region since a few months ago.
"Russia has de facto control of Donetsk, the deadline of September 15 means that Russia will fully control Donetsk in the end," said Fahmi when contacted by CNNIndonesia.com, Wednesday (7/9).
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| Is the target of the Moscow troops achievable? |
Fahmi further explained that Russian troops managed to control Donetsk, because they were assisted by pro-Moscow separatist groups.
Such conditions, he said, would make it easier for Russia to fully control Donetsk. However, Russia only has eight days remaining to occupy Donetsk. In addition, they are also called logistical shortages by requesting weapons from North Korea.
Russia is reportedly short of artillery and is buying the weapons from Pyongyang. The United States sees the arms purchase as a sign that Moscow is starting to get overwhelmed with Ukraine.
In August, Russia also reportedly bought drones from Iran. However, this drone is said to have experienced a number of failures.
Despite the difficult situation, Fahmi still thinks Russia will control Donetsk at least 80 percent by mid-September.
"My prediction is not completely in mid-September, but the situation could change and it could be fully occupied," he said.
Another factor that hinders Russia's targets is the steady supply of weapons from the West for Ukraine.
"Ukraine can still defend and attack with Western aid ammunition," he said.
The West is busy sending weapons to Ukraine to help them fight Russia. The United States, for example, agreed to send a high mobility artillery rocket launcher system (HIMARS) to Ukraine last June.
This artillery is part of a weapons package worth US $ 700 million. Since the war raged in eastern Europe, the Joe Biden government has sent $4.5 billion worth of military aid. The armaments include 72 155mm howitzers, 72 vehicles to transport personnel, 144,000 ammunition, and 120 Phoenix Ghost tactical drones.
Apart from the US, Britain also supplies weapons to Ukraine. The weapons include 120 armored vehicles, 5,800 anti-tank missiles, five air defense systems, a thousand rockets and 4.5 tons of explosives.
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