If war broke out between Chinese and Taiwanese forces, could Beijing's military take control of the island? Political tension in the East Asia region suddenly heated up due to the arrival of the Speaker of the United States (US) House of Representatives (US) Nancy Pelosi.
The United States (US) has apparently killed its aircraft carrier fleet, including the wing of its fighter plane, approaching Taiwan. Likewise with China. They don't stay still.
Just after Pelosi landed in Taiwan, the PLA Eastern Fleet Command immediately conducted joint military exercises and operations around the island of Taiwan. The military exercises involving naval and air forces were held in the northern, southwest and southeastern regions of Taiwan.
According to spokesman for the PLA Eastern Fleet Command Senior Colonel Shi Yi, long-range firing drills were held in the Taiwan Strait and conventional missile launch drills were conducted in eastern Taiwan.
The escalation in Taiwan is certainly not expected to lead to an open war, as happened in the Eastern European arena, between Russia Vs Ukraine. However, if that's the case then, can China take Taiwan by force if it wants to?
As is well known, under Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the Chinese military, also known as the People's Liberation Army or PLA, has stepped up to the point where a campaign to seize Taiwan seems increasingly plausible.
But experts and observers doubt the readiness of Chinese troops to attack Taiwan and successfully seize the island easily, especially after Russia's troubled war in Ukraine.
"When people talk about whether China can or can't do it, they're actually talking about something different, the level of operational costs — ship loss, casualties — that China has to pay to do it," said Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert at the Freeman Institute for International Studies. Spogli Stanford University as quoted by the New York Times, Wednesday (3/8/2022).
"They can do it," he added. "It's just that in light of Taiwan's defense and if the United States can help Taiwan, how many blood battles will there be?"
For your information, the Act passed by Congress in 1979 paved the way for American troops to intervene if China tried to invade Taiwan, but the law does not require a president to take that step. One key question is how close the PLA/Chinese army is to mastering the capabilities needed to:
- Sending tens of thousands of troops to Taiwan by sea or air
- Building a foothold on the island;
- Move to seize vital places such as ports, railways and communication centers, as well as cities full of potential for civilian uprisings.
The Pentagon's 2021 annual report on the People's Republic of China notes that the PRC has built the world's largest navy as measured by the number of ships. However, according to the report, an attempt to attack Taiwan is likely to burden China's military budget and invite international intervention."
"Even if Chinese troops make it to shore in Taiwan, the difficulties of urban warfare make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party," the Pentagon report said.
Several recent studies released by the US Naval War College also suggest that China may still lack some of the equipment and skills needed to make an invasion of Taiwan credible.
"China's landing forces are not even believed to have the capacity to carry out a large-scale attack on Taiwan," wrote Dennis J. Blasko, a retired lieutenant colonel, in a study.
On the other hand, Taiwan is also building their defenses. China can indeed attack Taiwan. Bejing's military size dwarfs the island nation's armed forces in numbers.
But some observers think any invasion model is likely to be more akin to the brutal Allied landings of World War II in Normandy than the swift victory of Operation Desert Storm in the first Gulf War in 1991.
Roughly 100 miles from China and about the size of Maryland, not only is the island of Taiwan surrounded by a protective watery moat, but it's also an island with geographical features that make it an extremely poor candidate for invasion – no matter how strong that invading force may be.
Observers note that in 1944, the US military canceled Operation Causeway, a plan to attack Taiwan (then Japanese colony Formosa) because it was deemed too expensive.
US military planners concluded that attacking and capturing Formosa would require a total of half a million American assault troops. The Pentagon calculated the estimated number of US casualties from the invasion and subsequent mountain, jungle and urban battles and it was a staggering number - as many as 150,000.
Taiwan has been preparing for mainland Chinese attacks since the 1950s, and as such has a solid intelligence apparatus, troops trained for the sole mission of repelling Chinese troops, plenty of robust modern military hardware, and formidable defenses along every possible landing area. .
Due to the hilly terrain, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops will face weapons of destruction raining down on them from heavily fortified defensive positions. What a difficult choice for a Xi Jinping.
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