The United States stock market is predicted to fall even deeper. That's according to hedge-fund veteran Leon Cooperman who has predicted the US economy will plunge into recession in 2023.
Cooperman said he thought the S&P 500 index would suffer a total decline of 40% as the recession hit corporate profits. He said equities are unlikely to return to the bull market anytime soon.
Investors dumped stocks in 2022 in response to a Federal Reserve decision that has started what may be one of the fastest rate-rising cycles in its history in a bid to tame rampant inflation.
The S&P 500, the benchmark US stock index, was down 21% this year at Monday's close. It took it from a peak of just under 4,800 in early January to 3,761 by Monday's close of play.
Cooperman said that he thought the S&P 500 would be down 40% from its January total peak. He said it was likely to drop to 3,000 before starting to recover 20% below Monday's closing level. Investors expect the US to fall into recession next year, either as a result of soaring oil prices or because of the Fed's rate hikes.
"My basic view is that the 4,800 S&P is likely to be a high for some time," Cooperman said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
"I think we're going through a prolonged period of low returns as we try to repair the ship," he said.
Cooperman founded the hedge fund Omega Advisors, which he now runs as a family office. Forbes estimates he has
net worth of US$2.5 billion.
Explaining his prediction that stocks will fall further, Cooperman said corporate profits, a key ingredient in stock prices, typically fall by about 20% during a recession.
Cooperman said a lot of speculative froth was being removed from the market. He gave the example of crypto exchange Coinbase, which is down about 86% from its peak.
"I believe we've been through one of the most speculative periods that I know of, you know, SPAC and all the bullshit going on, crypto and nonfungible tokens and stuff like that," Cooperman said.
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