US Intelligence Officer: 'Russian Missile Strike Success Rate In Ukraine Below 40 Percent'

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Russian Missile Strike Success


Since Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, it has been more than four months now that the invasion has been going on. From the theater of war, it is interesting to observe how many missiles Russia has launched to hit strategic and tactical targets. 

Now, regarding the number of missiles launched by the Kremlin, the question is, how many missiles have been launched by Russia in its attack on Ukraine.

So far no information has been released by Russia on the number of missiles it has launched at Ukraine. However, there is interesting information from the other side, quoted from Newsweek.com (25/5/2022), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week said, "2,275 Russian missiles of various types have hit our cities and communities in 85 days. The Russian bombardment of Ukraine does not stop, day or night it continues."


However, seeing the current state of the battle, many ask, why has Russia not been able to conquer Ukraine yet? Apart from massive weapons support from the West/NATO, it has attracted attention to measure the effectiveness of Russia's massive cruise missile attack. Newsweek said Russia had set a record, firing more missiles in the Ukraine war than any country fired in any other conflict since World War Two.

Answering how effective Russia's missile attack in Ukraine, will certainly revolve around the hypothesis of defense analysts. One interesting argument is Moscow's missteps in not establishing air superiority over Ukraine, and Russia's dwindling supply of precision-guided weapons.

An interesting case, the first 48 hours of attacks on Ukrainian air defenses in the opening salvo of the war, Russia attacked airfields and air defense sites but largely did not follow through. Ukraine's small air force is largely grounded, but Kiev seems to be given the opportunity to adjust, especially in the deployment of its air defense missiles, particularly those fired from the shoulder. This creates what is referred to as the “air superiority of the poor”.

Focusing on Russia's cruise missile strike capabilities in Ukraine, intelligence analysts from the Pentagon pointed out that Russian missiles are experiencing some range constraints in hitting targets in western Ukraine, and there are inventory issues that force switching from one weapon to another, but overall the biggest problem facing Russia is that they are not doing well.

"If you look at the launches overall, just under half of all Russian missiles hit their target points," said a senior official at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) who asked not to be named. He added that two to three out of every ten missiles fired failed to launch or failed during their flight.


That's not all, the other two have technical issues like not fused properly even if they fly into the desired range. Two or three more lost their aim points even when the missiles hit their intended targets. "Currently, we rate the success rate of Russia's missile strikes on Ukraine as below 40 percent," the DIA official said.

Zelensky's camp said it had so far managed to shoot down 110 Russian cruise missiles, nearly 10 percent of which reached Ukrainian airspace.

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