Russia has about 70% of the fighting force it believes will be needed for
a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is sending more tactical battalion
groups to the border with its neighbour. This was disclosed by two US
officials.
"In the past two weeks, the number of tactical group (BTG) battalions in
the Ukrainian border region has increased to 83 from 60 on Friday and
another 14 are in transit," the officials said on condition of anonymity
because of the sensitivity of this information. (6/2/2022).
Regarding the timing of the invasion, the US officials said the ground was
expected to reach freezing around February 15 allowing off-road mechanized
transit by Russian military units. Such conditions will continue until the
end of March.
That timeline and the increasing numbers and capabilities of Russian
troops close to Ukraine could indicate that the diplomatic window is
closing.
Washington believes Russia could choose other options than a full-scale
invasion, including a limited strike, and does not believe President
Vladimir Putin has made the final decision, officials said.
But they say Putin puts in place a force that can execute all scenarios.
"If Russia were to attack the capital Kiev, it could fall within days,"
the US officials said.
One of the officials said a full-scale invasion would cause heavy
casualties. "Ukraine could suffer 5,000 to 25,000 troop casualties, while
Russian troop casualties could be between 3,000 and 10,000, and civilian
casualties could range from 25,000 to 50,000, according to US estimates,"
the official said.
According to Washington, a full-fledged invasion would also drive millions
of refugees and internally displaced people in Europe to flee.
But these US officials provided no evidence to support their estimates of
Russian troops.
Assembling more than 100,000 troops near the border, Russia said it was
not planning an invasion but could take unspecified military action if its
security demands were not met.
That includes a promise that NATO will never recognize Ukraine as a
member, a request Washington and NATO say are unacceptable.
