Russia reportedly has in place 70 percent of the military needed for the
full invasion of Ukraine. Russia has assembled at least 70 % of the military
firepower, it intends to have in place by the middle of February to give
president Vladimir Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion of
Ukraine, u.s officials have said.
As reported on Saturday officials warned that a full Russian invasion could
lead to the quick capture of Kyiv and potentially result in as many as
50,000 civilians killed or wounded, according to the new york times and
Washington Post.
A US official confirmed that estimate to the associated press but it's not
clear how u s agencies determined those numbers.
The grim assessment comes after British prime minister Boris Johnson agreed
with french president Emmanuel Macron that the UK and its nato allies would
be united in their fight against Russian aggression wherever however it
might occur.
European leaders are due to travel to both Moscow and Kyiv in a bid to
calm tensions.
Macron is expected to visit Moscow on Monday and Kyiv on Tuesday, while the
German chancellor Olaf Schultz will travel to Kyiv on the 14th of February
and to Moscow the next day.
UK foreign secretary Liz Truss had been due to travel to Ukraine with the
prime minister on Tuesday but had to drop out of the trip after testing
positive for coronavirus.
Truss will reportedly travel to Moscow soon. u.s officials said that as of
Friday, the Russian army had put in place near Ukraine a total of 83
battalion tactical groups, each of which is roughly equivalent in size to an
American battalion of between 750 and 1,000 soldiers, that is an increase
from 60 battalion tactical groups in position just two weeks ago, they said.
Another 14 battalion tactical groups are on their way to the border area
from other parts of Russia, the official said. Two officials said the u.s
assesses that Russia would want a total of between 110 and 130 battalion
tactical groups for use in a full-scale invasion. But Putin could decide on
more limited incursion, including support units.
Russia might be aiming to have 150,000 troops in place for a full-scale
invasion. One official said adding that the ongoing build-up could reach
that level in the next couple of weeks.
On Thursday u.s officials claimed to have evidence of an elaborate plot by
the kremlin to make a very graphic fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a
pretext for a military invasion.
Downing Street said on Friday it is high confidence Russia is planning to
fabricate a reason for attacking Ukraine.
The u.s officials who discussed internal assessments of the Russian build-up
on condition they not be identified, sketched out a series of indicators
suggesting Putin intends an invasion in coming weeks, although the size and
scale are unclear. They stress that a diplomatic solution appears to remain
possible.
Among those military indicators, an exercise of Russia's strategic nuclear
forces that usually is held in autumn was rescheduled from mid-February to
march, which coincides with what u.s officials see as the most likely window
for invasion.
The officials made no suggestion that a prospective conflict would involve
the use of nuclear weapons but the Russian exercise, likely involving the
test launching of unarmed long-range missiles on Russian territory could be
used as a message aimed at deterring the West from intervening in Ukraine.
U.S officials have said in recent weeks that a Russian invasion could
overwhelm Ukraine's military relatively quickly, although Moscow might find
it difficult to sustain occupation and cope with a potential insurgency.
The Guardian reported that the ongoing Russian buildup comes as the Biden
administration has been disclosing intelligence and hopes of preemptively
countering Russian disinformation blocking Putin's plans to create a pretext
for an invasion.
But it has come under criticism for not providing evidence to back up many
of its claims.
Army officials on Saturday announced that major general Christopher Donahue,
the commanding general of the 82nd airborne division arrived in Poland.
About other 1,700 soldiers from the 82nd airborne are deploying to Poland
from Fort Bragg North Carolina and 300 soldiers are deploying from Bragg to
Germany.
In addition, 1,000 Germany-based soldiers are shifting to Romania. Captain
Matt Visser, spokesman for the 18th airborne corps which includes the 82nd
division said our core presence serves to bolster existing u.s forces in
Europe and demonstrates our commitment to our nato allies and partners.
"The corps was made up of combat-capable forces who stand ready to enhance
the alliance's ability to deter and defeat Russian aggression," the u.s
statement added.
Washington said last week it would send about 3,000 additional troops to
eastern Europe to defend nato members against any aggression, with growing
nervousness in eastern Europe over Russia's buildup much attention is
focused on its placement of thousands of troops in Belarus, which shares a
border not only with Ukraine but also with three nato nations Poland,
Lithuania, and Latvia.
The Biden administration may soon shift some more troops within Europe to
allied nations on nato's eastern flank, a u.s official said on Saturday
without specifying which nations.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week that Putin could use any
portion of the force he has assembled along Ukraine's borders to seize
Ukrainian cities and significant territories or to carry out coercive acts
or provocative political acts such as the recognition of breakaway
territories inside Ukraine.
"Depending on Putin's ultimate objective, the Russian forces could attack
kiev directly by moving south from current positions in southern Belarus. He
might also send forces across the Russian border into eastern and southern
Ukraine if his intent is to fracture and destroy a large portion of the
Ukrainian army," the official said.
Russia has enough troops in place to seize Kyiv or another Ukrainian city
but not yet for a full takeover occupation of the country. Andre Zagharatnuk
said in an interview with the guardian that the situation looked pretty
dire.
Russia could now seize any city in Ukraine, but we still don't see the 200
000 troops needed for a full-scale invasion, he said.
His comments follow ominous briefings by the Biden administration about the
kremlin's military buildup on Ukraine's border. The White House believes
Moscow has assembled at least 70 percent of the firepower it needs to give
Vladimir Putin the option of a major military operation by mid-February.
The u.s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that an
invasion could take place at any time.
"It could happen as soon as tomorrow or it could take some weeks yet,"
he told NBC.
"We're in the window where something could happen, we believe the Russians
have put in place the capabilities to mount a significant operation,".
"He insisted however that Joe Biden was still pursuing diplomacy. He's
reinforced and reassured our partners on the eastern flank.
He's provided
material support to the Ukrainians and he's offered the Russians a
diplomatic path if that's what they choose instead but either way, we are
ready our allies are ready," he said.
