Despite his latest threats to NATO and his doomsday warnings to the West,
there are tentative signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to
avoid an escalation of the Ukraine crisis and seek some form of
accommodation with the West.
In the early hours of Tuesday, Putin warned for the second time in a week
that European countries would automatically be drawn into a war with Russia
in which "there would be no winners" if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried
to retake the Crimean peninsula from Russia. in 2014.
But at a Kremlin press conference that ended after 1 a.m., he also said that
the dialogue was not over, that some proposals from the United States and
NATO were worth discussing, and that Russia would do everything to find a
compromise that suits everyone.
After more than three months of high tensions sparked by Putin's deployment
of more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, his intentions remain
opaque.
The White House said over the weekend he could order an attack within days
or weeks.
But two Moscow-based analysts who specialize in deciphering signals from the
Kremlin said Putin's late-night comments after hours of talks with French
President Emmanuel Macron showed he was serious about negotiations.
"Of course he stays in his position, but I don't get the impression that he
wants to escalate," said Andrey Kortunov, head of Russia's Council for
International Affairs.
"Maybe you won't talk to your opponent for seven hours if you just want to
lecture him and close the file."
Read also: Russia: Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, opposes all forms
of independence
Putin has amassed a force of more than 100,000 Russian troops near the
border with Ukraine as he pressed a core demand he restated on Tuesday: no
more expansion of NATO, no deployment of missiles near Russia's borders and
a reduction in NATO's military infrastructure in Europe to the same level.
like 1997.
He complained that the United States and NATO had "passed" this in the
formal response they submitted to Moscow on January 26, which contained
"political cliches and proposals on some secondary issues".
But last week's leaked US response to Spanish newspaper El Pais - including
an offer to address Russia's specific concerns.
It said Washington was ready to discuss a mutual agreement on not deploying
missiles and combat troops in Ukraine, and to negotiate a "transparency
mechanism" to confirm that the United States was not placing Tomahawk cruise
missiles at missile defense sites in Poland and Romania.
Kortunov said entering into arms control dialogue with Washington because it
could be in Putin's interest.
"In a way that can fulfill his demands because if there are serious
negotiations on arms control in Europe, these negotiations can prevent NATO
infrastructure from moving closer to Russia's borders," Kortunov said.
"If this is the focus of his attention, he can try to solve the problem this
way. But of course he won't completely ignore his main request."