The leader of the United Russia Party in the Duma, Vladimir Vasilyev, asked
the Kremlin to supply military aid to the breakaway Donetsk Republic and
Lugansk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine.
First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council and Secretary of the General
Council of United Russia Andrey Turchak said, "Russia must provide the
necessary assistance to the Donetsk Republic and the Lugansk People's
Republic (DPR and LNR) in the form of various types of weapons."
Questions are raised about what types of weapons and military equipment
could be sent to the republic that broke away from Ukraine after the 2014
Maidan, when mass protests toppled former President Viktor Yanukovych, and
whether this would be a limiting factor in the hypothesis of an armed
conflict with Ukraine.
“According to some reports, the DPR and LPR at this stage have more than 600
tanks, more than a thousand infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), more than 500
artillery pieces, and more than 250 multiple rocket launchers (MRL). There
are around 30,000 soldiers in the republic," said Mikhail Khodarenok, a
military observer at RT.com on Monday (1/2/2022).
This seems like a significant number, but if the 255,000-strong Ukrainian
army started an attack, the military units of the DPR and LPR would not be
able to contain it.
"The general opinion is that if tensions escalate in the Donbass, the
self-proclaimed republic will need the help of the Russian army," Khodarenok
said.
But what kind of weapons could Russia send to the Donbass today to help them
in defense against the Ukrainian army?
The first thing that comes to mind is a weapon that can target Ukrainian
armored vehicles. This will increase the capabilities of the DPR and LPR.
These systems include the Khrizantema anti-tank guided missile launcher
(ATGM), various modifications of the Kornet ATGM, the Shturm-S system, as
well as the Fagot and Metis portable anti-tank guided missile launchers.
Artillery surveillance stations and fire control radars, such as the
Zoopark-1 weapon tracking radar system, can be deployed against Ukrainian
artillery.
Existing mine barriers built by the DPR/LPR engineering unit would benefit
from additional anti-personnel and anti-tank mines of various types. This
would allow the creation of an impenetrable barrier zone for the Ukrainian
military.
“We have reason to believe that the air defense systems deployed in the
breakaway republic also need to be upgraded. If Moscow decides to send aid,
we can probably expect the arrival of Pantsir-S missiles and anti-aircraft
systems, as well as radars that will enhance air surveillance capabilities,"
Khodarenok said.
Pantsir needs to be seamlessly integrated into control systems, as well as
radar surveillance and data processing tools.
The Donbass Republic can also receive the latest electronic warfare systems,
including the most advanced ones, such as Krasukha. This will disrupt
communications and disrupt the command and control system in the Ukrainian
armed forces.
Military assistance to the DPR and LPR will have another important aspect.
In addition to delivering new weapons, Russia can help repair and perfect
the equipment the republic already has.
“Everything must be ready for combat. This applies to all weapons and
hardware such as tanks, IFVs, tracking vehicles, ordinary motorized
vehicles, anti-tank guided missile vehicles, and firearms," said
Khodarenok. The armed forces of the DPR and LPR will most likely require
massive deliveries of tanks, armored vehicles, and motorized vehicles, as
well as other types of military equipment.
Ammunition supplies (artillery shells, guided missiles, anti-tank guided
missiles, tank ammunition and firearms), fuel (gasoline and diesel), and
food supplies must be rebuilt to the level required to carry out defensive
operations.
"These supplies must be sufficient for at least 30 days, as long as the
DPR/LPR are at war," he said.
Training is another important consideration. Both suppliers and recipients
must take into account the fact that even the most advanced weapons should
not fall into the hands of operators who are not trained to use them
properly.
"This will have two negative consequences: combat failure and discrediting
of Russian weapons," Khodarenok said.
Will this weapon allow the Donbass Republic to fend off a hypothetical
attack by the Ukrainian army?
"Those weapons will certainly help, but, hopefully, such military assistance
will help avoid any invasion in the first place: they will force Ukrainian
leaders to weigh the costs of such a campaign in potential losses of
personnel and equipment," he said.
Given the high stakes involved in such a move, it is not in Kiev's interest
for further escalation in eastern Ukraine at this time.
