US President Joe Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to
attack Ukraine within days, after Moscow-backed separatists told civilians
to leave the breakaway area by bus, a move the West fears as part of a
pretext for attacks.
In one of the worst post-Cold War crises, Russia wants to stop Kyiv from
joining NATO and accuses the West of hysterics, saying it has no plans to
attack, while the United States and its allies insist that military build-up
continues.
Warning sirens sounded in Donetsk and Luhansk on Friday after rebel leaders
there announced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people to Russia.
"We have reason to believe that Russian forces are planning and intending to
attack Ukraine in the coming weeks, in the coming days," Biden told
reporters at the White House, adding that Kyiv would be a target.
"Until now, I believe he has made up his mind."
Late Friday, Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian special forces had
planted explosives at a social infrastructure facility in Donetsk, and urged
residents to stay home. Russia's Federal Security Service did not
immediately return a request for comment.
Citing correspondents on the ground, Russian news agencies later reported
that two explosions hit Luhansk, one of the main cities in the breakaway
Luhansk People's Republic, and part of a gas pipeline in the area caught
fire.
Earlier, separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk issued video statements
in which they announced the evacuation and accused Ukraine of preparing to
attack both regions immediately - accusations that Kyiv said were false.
But at least one video appears to have been made on Wednesday before the
latest explosion in shooting began, according to metadata, embedded in the
footage. That raises suspicion among Western analysts though it can be
overridden.
Asked about the evacuations, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said they
were a "good example" of what Washington fears.
"We have ... long predicted for all of you that Russia will take part in
pretexts or steps that will either lay the predicate for war or to create
confusion or spread misinformation on the ground," he told reporters.
Reuters reporters saw the vehicle surrounded by shrapnel, a wheel thrown off
by the explosion. Russian media said it belonged to a separatist official.
Many families in the mostly Russian-speaking area have been granted
citizenship by Moscow and within hours, some boarded buses at the evacuation
point in Donetsk, where authorities say 700,000 people will leave.
Irina Lysanova, 22, said she was packing to travel with her retired mother:
"Mama is a freak," she said.
His father, Konstantin, 62, did not come. "This is my homeland," he said.
The evacuations began after the conflict zone saw sources described as the
most intense artillery bombardment in years on Friday.
Ukraine was Russia's most painful loss of the 14 former republics under its
control before the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Russia-backed rebels seized most of eastern Ukraine in 2014, the same year
Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea region. Kyiv says that more than 14,000
people have died in the conflict in the east.
As the Kremlin shows off its military capacity in several areas, Putin will
oversee the exercises of his strategic nuclear missile force on Saturday.
Russia has released footage showing it withdrawing troops from the border
but the United States believes there has been an increase of between
169,000-190,000 troops, from 100,000 at the end of January.
New helicopters and deployment of tank battle groups, armored personnel
carriers and support equipment have been deployed in Russia, near the
border, according to US-based Maxar Technologies, which tracks developments
with satellite imagery.
The Kremlin has tens of thousands of troops holding drills in Belarus, north
of Ukraine, which are due to conclude on Sunday. Belarusian leader Alexander
Lukashenko met with Putin on Friday, saying earlier that soldiers could stay
as long as needed.
Western countries fear conflict on a scale not seen in Europe at least since
the Yugoslav and Chechen wars in the 1990s, when hundreds of thousands of
people died and millions more fled.
A diplomatic source with years of conflict experience described Friday's
shooting as the most intense since major fighting there ended in a 2015
ceasefire. "They shot - everyone and everything."
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said she did not think a
full-blown invasion was the most likely scenario but that Russia could stage
a coup in Ukraine, attack critical infrastructure or trigger violence that
would be blamed on Kyiv.
Kyiv also said a full-scale invasion was unlikely.
Since ousting the pro-Russian president, Ukraine has held joint military
exercises with NATO and took delivery of weapons including US Javelin
missiles and Turkish drones.
Putin said Ukraine's growing relationship with the alliance could make it a
launching pad for missiles targeting Russia.
As the crisis deepens, the West is also considering its non-military
options.
Banning Russia from the SWIFT financial system is unlikely to be included in
the initial sanctions package in the event of an invasion, a White House
official said on Friday, confirming a Reuters report.
How allies should respond to aggression beyond an all-out invasion is far
from being agreed, US and European officials say amid differences within the
EU.
"Those closest to Russia, such as Hungary, would oppose any sanctions other
than a military invasion," according to a senior diplomat.
