There are about 9 countries in the world that can support President Vladimir
Putin if Russia goes to war with NATO. The potential for conflict between
the two camps has become more open after the US-led military alliance
rejected Russia's demands for security guarantees and the issue of Ukraine.
Citing analysis from The EurAsianTimes, Saturday (29/1/2022), nine countries
that could support Putin include the 5 CSTO alliance countries (Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan), Iran, Cuba, China, and
North Korea. Massive NATO aid has arrived in Ukraine amid the threat of a
Russian invasion.
US President Joe Biden has described the possible attack as an event that
will change the world forever and that will be the largest since World War
II. A small but significant breakthrough, however, was achieved amid rising
tensions.
Moscow and Kiev agreed to a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine after more than
eight hours of discussions in Paris that took place between a Normandy
format made up of France and Germany in addition to Russia and Ukraine.
Yet these talks are a positive signal after months of vicious rhetoric from
both sides. Ukraine has been assured of all the support from the US and
NATO, despite its failure to officially join the military bloc until now.
In fact, the main trigger for Russia to carry out a massive troop buildup
near the Ukrainian border was Ukraine's plans to join the anti-Russian
organization.
In 2021, NATO has announced that it welcomes the aspirations of Ukraine and
Georgia to join.
NATO has pledged to defend Ukraine. Missiles, tanks, fighter jets and other
weapons consistently arrive in Kiev. Units have also been identified by the
US for deployment in Europe to deter a Russian invasion.
Right now, there is a fair amount of clarity about who is taking up arms
against Russia. However, it is also important to identify countries that
could support Moscow if war broke out between Russia and NATO-backed
Ukraine.
Although experts have ruled out full-scale war, other possibilities cannot
be ruled out given the scale of its military buildup.
Who Can Support Russia?
There is a traditional opinion of Putin in the West that he is a man of
action rather than a strategist.
In fact, when Joe Biden took power, he bluntly said that Vladimir Putin was
a “murderer” who had angered Russians at the time. However, one should not
jump in and doubt Putin's strategic acumen.
Moscow has pro-Russian groups and even troops in Ukraine's Donbass region,
which has long been accused of causing instability in the region. This is
the majority of Russian-speaking people.
In the event of war, the region would probably be the first to lend its
support behind Russia. Then, there is the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO), a military bloc similar to NATO. It is basically a
security alliance made up of the former Soviet states.
If attacked, the six countries that make up the CSTO (Russia, Armenia,
Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) will most likely defend each
other. Due to the sudden withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and
the takeover by the Taliban, security concerns among West Asian countries
have increased, causing a natural shift towards Russia.
Putin used the opportunity presented to him as protests spread in the
region's most prosperous country, Kazakhstan. He deployed troops to help the
government. This has restored the confidence of the CSTO countries in Russia
and the alliance as a whole.
Despite the fact that this organization is not designed to engage with
internal matters, some or all of these partners will surely rush to the aid
of President Putin if Russia invades Ukraine.
Another country in the Caucasus region, Azerbaijan (non-CSTO), is also
expected to ignore calls to rise up against Russia in the event of a
conflict. In 2020, the Russian President brokered a ceasefire between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
While the rest of the world called for them to end the war, it was only
Putin's intervention that resulted in a ceasefire pact, even though it was
hailed as Azerbaijan's victory.
Furthermore, Russian troops are stationed in and around the disputed
territory to avoid another ethnic conflict. So, it is almost certain that
Azerbaijan will not join forces against Russia even if it does not publicly
support it.
Moving further into the Middle East, Iran is one country that will support
Russia in any capacity. After the nuclear deal fell through, Russia has
consistently approached Iran.
While tensions have risen over the years between the US and its allies on
the one hand and Iran on the other, Russia has supplied weapons and has
cooperated with Iran in the Syrian War. As relations between Washington and
Tehran soured after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, Moscow
condemned the attack.
As Iran continues to stagger under the economic sanctions imposed by the US,
it can be expected to support Russia with a vengeance. Most importantly, the
largest visible economy in the world and the “Asian Dragon”–China is
Russia's main partner.
Moscow has deepened its partnership with Beijing over the years as tensions
between the West and China continue to rise. In fact, both Russia and China
have multi-dimensional partnerships with cooperation ranging from trade to
military to outer space.
China firmly asks the US to put aside the Cold War mentality and take
Russia's security issues seriously.
In the event of a conflict, China will most likely support Russia. Close to
China is another isolated but strategically significant country, the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea or North Korea (North Korea). Being a
communist state, it was Beijing's main ally and partner of the former Soviet
Union.
North Korea is a country that remains hostile to the United States and its
allies. In fact, China and Russia recently blocked US efforts to impose
sanctions on North Korea at the United Nations following a spate of missile
launches on the peninsula.
There is no doubt that North Korea will wholeheartedly support Russia if a
full-scale war were to occur.
India, on the other hand, is one of the most geopolitically important
countries in Asia and is usually known for its neutrality and being a
non-aligned country despite having strong ties to Russia and the West. Even
during the Cold War, he had led the banner of the Non-Aligned Movement from
the very front.
It is not easy for India to decide which side to defend given it has very
close ties to Russia and the United States.
The India-Russia partnership is characterized by defense cooperation, while
its proximity to the US is driven by the Chinese factor. But New Delhi has
taken a very nuanced approach to avoiding hostilities from the two
countries.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely that India will support any conflict
against Russia, despite Western pressure.
Up towards the Americas, there is Cuba, one of Russia's oldest partners. The
close cooperation of the communist state of Cuba with the former Soviet
Union is well known. President Vladimir Putin and Cuban President Miguel
Dáz-Canel recently discussed "strategic cooperation" and pledged to
"strengthen bilateral relations".
This has fueled speculation that Cuba will side with Russia in the event of
a conflict. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian
television network RTVI that he could neither confirm nor deny that Russia
was sending military assets to Cuba if the US and its allies did not heed
Moscow's demands.
