Russian ships, tanks and troops on the move to ukraine as peace talks stall.
With negotiations deadlocked Moscow is continuing to build up its military
forces for a possible invasion. Russia has sent troops more than 4,000 miles
to ukraine's borders and announced sweeping naval drills as moscow expands
its preparations for a potential attack on ukraine as negotiations appear at
a deadlock.
Six russian landing ships capable of carrying main battle tanks, troops and
other military vehicles traveled through the channel on route to the
mediterranean last week in a deployment that could bolster an amphibious
landing on ukraine's southern coast if vladimir putin orders an attack.
Ukraine's military intelligence has claimed that russia is hiring
mercenaries and supplying its proxy forces in the donetsk and luhansk
regions with fuel, tanks and self-propelled artillery in preparation for a
potential upsurge in fighting and a large military force, including a
scandal ballistic missiles, elite spetsnaz troops and anti-aircraft
batteries has arrived in Belarus from Russia's eastern military district, an
extraordinary deployment that western officials and analysts say could
enable moscow to threaten, kiev ukraine's capital.
"The new deployments have worried u.s officials, what concerns us is the
total picture,' said a senior state department official in a briefing last
week.
It is the amassing of 100,000 troops along ukraine's borders combined with
moving forces into belarus over the weekend. these numbers are beyond, of
course what we would expect with regard to a normal exercise.
The new forces in belarus, the official added represent an increased
capability for russia to launch this attack, increased opportunity,
increased avenues, increased roots.
"The US President Joe Biden last week said that putin himself may not know
what he plans to do. But the results are either reckless brinkmanship or
preparations for a large-scale military operation. It gradually dawned on
putin that if he stays on the track of stable and predictable as biden
indicated, he's the designated loser," said Pavel Bayev research professor
at the peace research institute oslo and a brookings institution
non-resident fellow.
Something needed to be done, he went for this escalation quite sharply.
diplomatic efforts last week were inconclusive, the russian foreign minister
Sergey Lavrov called talks with u.s secretary of state Anthony Blinken frank
and substantive.
"Advertisement, i can't say whether we are on the right track or not on the
right track. we'll understand" that when we receive an american response on
paper to all items of our proposals," Lavrov told reporters in Geneva.
But there are no concrete plans for a follow-up and the two sides appear
irreconcilable, with russia's foreign ministry repeating maximalist demands
for nato forces to leave all countries that joined the alliance after
1997.
"What is happening on the russian side in the last couple of weeks is not
really diplomacy. It's a combination of bluf, blackmail and warmongering,"
said Bayev during a roundtable discussion on friday.
As russia's buildup nears completion, u.s and european countries have
stepped up military support for ukraine. the uk last week sent more than
2000 NLAW (Next Generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) launchers and deployed
about 30 troops from a new ranger regiment as trainers.
Estonia has said it will provide javelin anti-tank missiles, while Lithuania
and Latvia will send stinger anti-aircraft missile. In a shift the
netherlands also said it would be ready to provide defensive weapons to
ukraine and the u.s has said it will increase aid and send Mi-17 transport
helicopters originally meant for use in afghanistan to ukraine instead.
The decision to fast-track arms to ukraine reflects an understanding that
russia could launch an attack at any moment.
"We know that there are plans in place to increase that force even more on
very short notice and that gives president putin the capacity also on very
short notice to take further aggressive action against ukraine," Lincoln
said in public remarks last week.
The scope of a russian attack and its ultimate goals remain unclear. some
analysts have suggested russia may want to formally annex the donbass region
or capture territory to connect the russian mainland with Crimea. The
ukrainian Peninsula annexed by russia in 2014.
