But it is flawed, polling explained the
outposts could absorb more munitions
than u.s forces could afford to devote
to their suppression. China not the united states would
control the sea and air space of the
south china sea at the outbreak of
hostilities thanks to its artificial
island bases and given current american
force posture in the region it would be
prohibitively costly for the united
states to neutralize those outposts
during the early stages of a conflict.
That would make the south china sea and
no man's land for most u.s forces
submarines accepted during the critical
early stages of any conflict giving the
islands considerable military value for
beijing. Environmental conditions rather than
american missiles might pose the
greatest danger to the island bases.
Since 2013 the chinese government has
dredged and mostly destroyed
ecologically delicate reefs in disputed
waters in order to build seven major
military bases complete with ports
airstrips and radar and missile
installations. The islands function as unsinkable
aircraft carriers and help to cement
beijing's claims on waters rich with
fish and minerals waters that
neighboring countries also claim. If the terraforming no longer makes
headlines it is because it is largely
complete. the economist stated.
Perhaps the most important installations
sit on the fiery cross subi and mischief
reefs in the spratly island group. Vietnam, the philippines, malaysia, brunei
and taiwan all also claimed the
spratleys, between 2013 and 2016 huge construction
vessels pulverized the reefs in order to
create the raw materials for the bases. The dredger chin gin alone shifted
4500 cubic meters of materials every
hour enough to nearly fill two olympic
size swimming pools, according to the
hong kong south china morning post.
Yet not everything is going china's way, the economist added rumors suggest the
new island's concrete is crumbling and
their foundations turning to sponge in a
hostile climate, and that is before considering what a
direct hit from a super typhoon might do.
The island base's uncertain future
hasn't deterred china from keeping
additional capabilities on their
potentially fragile infrastructure. In the event of war between the united
states and china in the western pacific
region the outposts likely would be
important targets for the americans.
Could the united states still neutralize
the island bases early in a fight? polling asked. Probably but not at an
acceptable cost, doing so would require
expending a lot of ordinance likely
desperately needed in northeast asia
diverting important air and naval
platforms and placing them at risk out
of proportion to the potential
battlefield gains.
The island facilities are considerably
larger than many observers seem to
realize. As Thomas Shugart then a visiting fellow
at the center for a new american
security once pointed out most of the
district of columbia inside the I-495
beltway could fit inside the lagoon at
mischief reef.
Pearl Harbor naval base could fit inside
subi reef. The critical infrastructure
that would need to be hit to seriously
degrade chinese capabilities is spread
out across a considerable area. That amounts to a lot of ordinance to
drop even if the goal were just to hit
critical nodes like sensors, hangars
ammunition depots and command and
control facilities. Disabling the airstrips themselves would
be an even taller order. The united
states fired 59 tomahawks at the sherat
air base in Syria in 2017, all but one of
which hit yet the runway was back in
operation just a few hours later.
